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    大地震

    So now we wait. They’re expecting more aftershocks, there are tsunamis moving, and they were talking about landslides, so it’s possible that there will be more injuries and deaths, but so far things don’t seem to have been as horrible as they might have been. We can likely thank human ingenuity for that: Miyagi Prefecture is a known earthquake zone, and the city of Sendai improved the shut-off systems on its gas lines based on knowledge gained from the fires after the Hanshin quake in 1995. We can also thank luck: the Niigata earthquake in 2006 happened after a particularly wet summer, so there was a lot of earth liquefaction. The Hanshin earthquake happened early in the morning, so a lot of people were cooking breakfast. The earthquake yesterday happened in mid-afternoon on a weekday, so probably the greatest possible number of people one could hope for were in sturdy buildings for work.

    In Sendai itself, the surface shaking was a 6 on the JMA scale:

    6 upper – In many buildings, wall tiles and windowpanes are damaged and fall. Most unreinforced concrete-block walls collapse. 315 — 400 gal

    6 lower – In some buildings, wall tiles and windowpanes are damaged and fall. 250 — 315 gal

    At the epicenter, the less populous city of Kurihara, it was a 7, which basically means anything can fall down.

    The Nikkei is now reporting 60 confirmed deaths and says that the environs of the Fukushima nuclear power plant are being evacuated. Before they’d reported no leaks; I hope they’re just being cautious.

    News is going to be grim for a while, but there’s a lot the Japanese know about fighting the caprices of the weather and geology gods; that knowledge has already held down damage, and I’m sure we’ll be hearing plenty of stories over the next few days in which it minimizes human losses also.

    Added later: The Nikkei‘s little news-crawl function says that some of Tokyo’s private commuter-rail and subway lines are running their last trains for the night. Over 200 bodies already recovered in Sendai. Also—I somehow hadn’t noticed this before—the vibrations in the main quake apparently lasted for two minutes. By comparison, the Kobe quake lasted twenty seconds. But, again, Sendai was ready in ways Kobe was not. For Japan, Kobe was not considered an earthquake zone, so building and land-reclamation codes and disaster plans were insufficient. Response from the federal government was also slack, with private organizations (including the yakuza) upstaging Tokyo by distributing water and supplies while it was still getting its act together.

    When you study classical Japanese, you memorize the opening of the Hojoki. (It’s like reading Caesar in Latin class.) The Japanese often cite these lines in times of disaster:

    行く川のながれは絶えずして、しかも本の水にあらず。よどみに浮かぶうたかたは、かつ消えかつ結びて久しくとゞまることなし。世の中にある人とすみかと、またかくの如し。

    The flow of the running river is unceasing, yet the waters are not constant. Where it pools, the foam that floats up, now vanishing, now gathering, at no time lasts for any length. Man and his dwellings in this world are in every way the same.

    The Japanese have a very moving tradition of awareness of the impermanence of life and of stoicism in the face of loss, as the above shows. But there’s a balancing tradition of jaw-setting discipline and tough-mindedness when there’s work to be done. Happily, buildings made of concrete reinforced with rebar against shear are a lot less like foam on the shifting waters than the houses of old. And if disaster response has improved as much since Kobe, Niigata, and the last Sendai quake as we’ve been promised it has, yesterday’s victims are in good hands.

    BTW, thanks to those who’ve written to ask whether everyone I know is okay. I’d heard (or at least read a Facebook post) from just about everyone this morning before work. And I just got a message from Atsushi, who walked the two hours home from Aoyama but is fine. Like everyone else, he’s remarking on how many perceptible aftershocks there’ve been. One friend of mine said it feels like living on a giant waterbed.

    8 Responses to “大地震”

    1. Joel says:

      Thanks for posting this, esp. the passage from the Hojoki. But the news of death and destruction seems to be getting worse and worse.

    2. Nicole says:

      I’ve been thinking of the Hojoki, as well, and have pulled my copy off the shelf.

    3. Sean says:

      Joel, it always does. We’re probably looking at tens of thousands. It’s in the days after the quake/tsunami/typhoon that they start realizing whole villages are unaccounted for, finding lengths of road buried under landslides, and interviewing shelters full of people who have nowhere to go home to for the foreseeable future. I’m not being pollyanna-ish—but if an earthquake of 6 and 7 on the JMA scale is going to happen in a populated area, Miyagi Prefecture is possibly the best-equipped place in the world to deal with it. And while we Westerners are often shocked at how much power is concentrated in Tokyo, the fact is that Japan isn’t South Korea. Osaka/Kyoto/Kobe and, to a lesser extent, Nagoya have plenty of economic and infrastructural might.

      Nicole, my copy’s in a box right now, but I’m grateful that you can get just about anything in public domain off the Internet right now, yes.

    4. Leslie says:

      Sean—Instapundit has posted an e-mail from someone who said that not one building in the city fell and that engineering fforts have proven to have been pretty effective in terms of keeping the death count lower and damage greatly reduced from what they would have been in other places. I read somewhere, after Katrina, that the thinking in Japan about natural disasters is as follows: people should have provisions on hand for a week or longer; help will arrive, but it will take time and that people need to be able to take care of themselves in the interim. Is that true? If so, talk about a different viewpoint among the populace! People in New Orleans knew for a week that the worst-case scenario was on the way, and many hundreds decided to do nothing but park at the Superdome.

    5. Janis Gore says:

      Sean, where is all that wreckage going to go? I don’t know a thing about disposal in Japan.

      Oh, via Classical Values I heard you had a birthday. Hope is was a happy one.

    6. Sean says:

      Leslie, it’s possible that I wrote that. I posted several times about disaster readiness five or so years ago, particularly here:

      In Japan, what we’re told is this: A disaster may render you unreachable. It may cut you off from communication networks and utilities. The appropriate government agencies (starting at the neighborhood level and moving upward depending on the magnitude of the damage) will respond as quickly as they can, but you may be on your own for days until they do. Prepare supplies. Learn escape routes. Then learn alternate escape routes. Know what your region’s points of vulnerability are. Get to know your neighbors (especially the elderly or infirm) so you can help each other out and account for each other. Follow directions if you’re told to evacuate. Stay put if you aren’t. Participate in the earthquake preparation drills in your neighborhood.

      Janis, thanks—my birthday was great, yes. I don’t know where Japan will dispose of all the wreckage, actually; I assume they’ll be handling as much of it as possible locally, though obviously Tokyo’s going to be stepping in, too.

    7. John says:

      Just gave money – all I can do. Saw George Takei on CNN and twitter trying to raise money. Can’t very well say no to him.

    8. Sean says:

      Hi, John–haven’t seen you around for a while. :) And yes–it’d be great to be able to do more, but it’s really true that money does help in this case.

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